Firebird v0.63: System Logic Overview
The Firebird script is an automated trading system designed to identify and trade "market exhaustion." It operates by identifying when a price moves significantly far away from its recent average and then attempts to profit from the subsequent reversal or correction.
Below is a non-technical breakdown of the logic used by this system:
1. The Core Strategy: Moving Average Envelopes
The system builds a "channel" around the current price using a Moving Average (MA).
- The Baseline: It calculates the average price over the last 10 periods (the length of the MA).
- The Envelope: It creates an upper and lower boundary by shifting that average up and down by a specific percentage (defaulting to 0.1%).
- The Signal: The system looks for "exhaustion." When the market price breaks outside of these boundaries, it assumes the market has moved too far, too fast, and is likely to "snap back" in the opposite direction.
2. Trade Execution Logic
The system enters trades based on these boundary breakouts:
- Short Positions (Selling): If the price climbs above the upper boundary, the system opens a "Sell" position, betting that the price will drop.
- Long Positions (Buying): If the price falls below the lower boundary, the system opens a "Buy" position, betting that the price will rise.
To prevent entering too many trades in rapid succession, the system includes a Pip Step. This ensures that it won't open another trade unless the price has moved a specific distance away from the previous entry point.
3. Management of Losing Trades (Averaging)
One of the most distinct features of this script is how it handles trades that move against the intended direction:
- Position Averaging: If a trade begins to lose money, rather than closing it immediately, the system will open additional positions in the same direction if the price continues to move against the initial trade by a set amount (the
PipStep). - Dynamic Averaging: The script can be configured to increase the size of these additional positions as the number of open trades grows, attempting to "lower the average entry price."
- Dynamic Targets: Every time a new position is added to an existing trade, the system recalculates the Take Profit and Stop Loss. It adjusts these targets based on the average price of all currently open positions, ensuring that the entire "basket" of trades moves toward a single exit goal.
4. Safety Features and Filters
The script includes several safeguards to manage risk:
- Backtester Fix: To prevent the system from "looping" (repeatedly opening and closing trades at the same price point during testing), it ignores signals for a short period immediately after a trade is closed.
- Stop Loss Protection: It monitors the total loss across all open positions. If a "Stop Loss" is hit, the system recognizes that the market might be in a strong trend that is overriding the exhaustion logic. In this case, it may temporarily block trades in that specific direction to avoid being "trapped" again until the market stabilizes.
- Friday Trading: There is a toggle to enable or disable trading on Fridays, allowing the user to avoid holding positions over the weekend.
Summary of Behavior
In plain terms, Firebird is a mean-reversion system. It waits for the market to get "overextended" (too high or too low), enters a trade betting on a return to the average, and uses an aggressive "averaging" technique to manage those trades if the market continues to move against it.
//+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
//| Firebird v0.63 - MA envelope exhaustion system |
//+-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
#property copyright "Copyright © 2005, TraderSeven"
#property link "TraderSeven@gmx.net"
// \\|// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ \\|//
// ( o o ) |T|r|a|d|e|r|S|e|v|e|n| ( o o )
// ~~~~oOOo~(_)~oOOo~~~~ +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ ~~~~oOOo~(_)~oOOo~~~~
// Firebird calculates a 10 day SMA and then shifts it up and down 2% to for a channel.
// For the calculation of this SMA either close (more trades) or H+L (safer trades) is used.
// When the price breaks a band a postion in the opposite of the current trend is taken.
// If the position goes against us we simply open an extra position to average.
// 50% of the trades last a day. 45% 2-6 days 5% longer or just fail.
//
//01010100 01110010 01100001 01100100 01100101 01110010 01010011 01100101 01110110 01100101 01101110
// Credits fly to:
// Vooch for the backtesting fix.
// Hugues Du Bois for the multi currency code.
// Jackie Griffin for some debugging.
// Many people in the MT forum for testing and feedback
//----------------------- USER INPUT
extern int MA_length = 10;
extern int MA_timeframe = 30; // hdb did I add this ? lol
extern int MAtype=0;//0=close, 1=HL
extern double Percent = 0.1;
extern int TradeOnFriday =1; // >0 trades on friday
extern int slip = 100;//exits only
extern double Lots = 0.3;
extern int TakeProfit = 30;
extern int Stoploss = 2000;// total loss on all open positions in pips
//extern double TrailingStop = 5;
extern int PipStep = 30;//if position goes this amount of pips against you add another.
extern double IncreasementType =0;//0=just add every PipStep, >0 =OrdersToal()^x *Pipstep
extern int MagicNumber=12345;
double Stopper=0;
double KeepStopLoss=0;
double KeepAverage;
double dummy;
double spread=0;
double CurrentPipStep;
int OrderWatcher=0;
//----------------------- MAIN PROGRAM LOOP
int start()
{
double PriceTarget;
double AveragePrice;
int OpeningDay;
//----------------------- CALCULATE THE NEW PIPSTEP
CurrentPipStep=PipStep;
if(IncreasementType>0)
{
CurrentPipStep=MathSqrt(OrdersTotal())*PipStep;
CurrentPipStep=MathPow(OrdersTotal(),IncreasementType)*PipStep;
}
//-----------------------
int Direction=0;//1=long, 11=avoid long, 2=short, 22=avoid short
if (Day()!=5 || TradeOnFriday >0)
{
int cnt=0, total;
int myTotal =0; // hdb
total=OrdersTotal();
if(total==0) OpeningDay=DayOfYear();
for(cnt=0;cnt<total;cnt++)
{
if ( (OrderSymbol()==Symbol()) && (OrderMagicNumber()==MagicNumber) ) // hdb - only symbol and magic
{
OrderSelect(cnt, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES);
double LastPrice=OrderOpenPrice();
myTotal = myTotal +1; // hdb - count of relevant trades
}
}
// OrderSelect(total, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES); // removed hdb
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
// BACKTESTER FIX: DO NOT PLACE AN ORDER IF WE JUST CLOSED
// AN ORDER WITHIN Period() MINUTES AGO
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
datetime orderclosetime;
string rightnow;
int rightnow2;
int TheHistoryTotal=HistoryTotal();
int difference;
int flag=0;
for(cnt=0;cnt<TheHistoryTotal;cnt++)
{
if(OrderSelect(cnt,SELECT_BY_POS,MODE_HISTORY)==true)
{
if ( (OrderSymbol()==Symbol()) && (OrderMagicNumber()==MagicNumber) ) // hdb - only symbol and magic
{
orderclosetime=OrderCloseTime();
rightnow=Year()+"-"+Month()+"-"+Day()+" "+Hour()+":"+Minute()+":"+Seconds();
rightnow2=StrToTime(rightnow);
difference=rightnow2-orderclosetime;
if(Period()*60*2>difference)
{ // At least 2 periods away!
flag=1; // Throw a flag
break;
}
}
}
}
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
if(flag!=1)
{
//----------------------- PREVIOUS OPEN PRICE
OrderWatcher=0;
total=OrdersTotal();
for(cnt=(total-1);cnt>=0;cnt--){
OrderSelect(cnt, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES);
// Print("ordersymbol = ", OrderSymbol(), " OrderOpenPrice= ", DoubleToStr(OrderOpenPrice(), 10));
if ( OrderSymbol()==Symbol()) // && (OrderMagicNumber()==MagicNumber) ) // hdb - only symbol and magic
{
LastPrice=OrderOpenPrice();
Comment("LastPrice= ",DoubleToStr(LastPrice, 10));
// Print("cnt= ", cnt, " ordersymbol = ", OrderSymbol(), " OrderOpenPrice= ", DoubleToStr(OrderOpenPrice(), 10), " lastprice= ",DoubleToStr(LastPrice, 10 ));
break;
}
}
//Print("ordersymbol = ", OrderSymbol(), " OrderOpenPrice= ", DoubleToStr(OrderOpenPrice(), 10), " lastprice= ",DoubleToStr(LastPrice, 10 ));
//----------------------- ENTER POSITION BASED ON OPEN
if(MAtype==0)
{
double myMA =iMA(NULL,MA_timeframe,MA_length,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_OPEN,0);
// Print(" Top, Bid ",myMA*(1+Percent/100)," ",Bid);
// if((myMA*(1+Percent/100))<Bid) Print(" Top, Bid ",myMA*(1+Percent/100)," ",Bid);
if((myMA*(1+Percent/100))<Bid && Direction!=22 && (Bid>=(LastPrice+(CurrentPipStep*Point))||total==0)) // Go SHORT -> Only sell if >= 30 pips above previous position entry
{
OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_SELL,Lots,Bid,slip,Bid+(Stoploss*Point),Bid-(TakeProfit*Point),0,0,Red);
OrderWatcher=1;
Direction=2;
}
if((myMA*(1-Percent/100))>Ask && Direction!=11 && (Ask<=(LastPrice-(CurrentPipStep*Point))||total==0)) // Go LONG -> Only buy if >= 30 pips below previous position entry
{
OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUY,Lots,Ask,slip,Ask-(Stoploss*Point),Ask+(TakeProfit*Point),0,0,Blue);
OrderWatcher=1;
Direction=1;
}
}
//----------------------- ENTER POSITION BASED ON HIGH/LOW
if(MAtype==1)
{
if((iMA(NULL,MA_timeframe,MA_length,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_HIGH,0)*(1+Percent/100))<Bid && Direction!=22 && (Bid>=(LastPrice+(CurrentPipStep*Point))||total==0)) // Go SHORT -> Only sell if >= 30 pips above previous position entry
{
OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_SELL,Lots,Bid,slip,Bid+(Stoploss*Point),Bid-(TakeProfit*Point),0,0,Red);
OrderWatcher=1;
Direction=2;
}
if((iMA(NULL,MA_timeframe,MA_length,0,MODE_SMA,PRICE_LOW,0)*(1-Percent/100))>Ask && Direction!=11 && (Ask<=(LastPrice-(CurrentPipStep*Point))||total==0)) // Go LONG -> Only buy if >= 30 pips below previous position entry
{
OrderSend(Symbol(),OP_BUY,Lots,Ask,slip,Ask-(Stoploss*Point),Ask+(TakeProfit*Point),0,0,Blue);
OrderWatcher=1;
Direction=1;
}
}
} // end of flag test
//----------------------- CALCULATE AVERAGE OPENING PRICE
total=OrdersTotal();
AveragePrice=0;
int myOrderType = -1; // hdb
myTotal = 0; // hdb - count of relevant trades
if(total>1 && OrderWatcher==1)
{
for(cnt=0;cnt<total;cnt++)
{
OrderSelect(cnt, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES);
if ( (OrderSymbol()==Symbol()) && (OrderMagicNumber()==MagicNumber) ) // hdb - only symbol and magic
{
AveragePrice=AveragePrice+OrderOpenPrice();
myOrderType = OrderType(); // hdb - keep order type
myTotal = myTotal +1; // hdb - count of relevant trades
}
}
AveragePrice=AveragePrice/MathMax(myTotal,1); // hdb myTotal
}
//----------------------- RECALCULATE STOPLOSS & PROFIT TARGET BASED ON AVERAGE OPENING PRICE
// OrderSelect(0, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES); // hdb removed
if(myOrderType==OP_BUY && OrderWatcher==1 && myTotal>1) // Calculate profit/stop target for long
{
PriceTarget=AveragePrice+(TakeProfit*Point);
Stopper=AveragePrice-(((Stoploss*Point)/myTotal));
}
if(myOrderType==OP_SELL && OrderWatcher==1 && myTotal>1) // Calculate profit/stop target for short
{
PriceTarget=AveragePrice-(TakeProfit*Point);
Stopper=AveragePrice+(((Stoploss*Point)/myTotal));
}
Comment("AveragePrice", AveragePrice);
//----------------------- IF NEEDED CHANGE ALL OPEN ORDERS TO THE NEWLY CALCULATED PROFIT TARGET
//if(OrderWatcher==1 && myTotal>1)// check if average has really changed
//if(OrderWatcher==1 && myTotal>1)// check if average has really changed
// {
total=OrdersTotal();
for(cnt=0;cnt<total;cnt++)
{
OrderSelect(cnt, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES);
if ( (OrderSymbol()==Symbol()) &&
(OrderMagicNumber()==MagicNumber) ) // hdb - only symbol and magic
{
OrderModify(OrderTicket(),0,Stopper,PriceTarget,0,Yellow);//set all positions to averaged levels
}
}
// }
//Comment("PriceTarget: ",PriceTarget," AveragePrice: ",AveragePrice," Total: ",total);
//----------------------- KEEP TRACK OF STOPLOSS TO AVOID RUNAWAY MARKETS
// Sometimes the market keeps trending so strongly the system never reaches it's target.
// This means huge drawdown. After stopping out it falls in the same trap over and over.
// The code below avoids this by only accepting a signal in teh opposite direction after a SL was hit.
// After that all signals are taken again. Luckily this seems to happen rarely.
if (OrdersTotal()>0)
{
myOrderType = -1; // hdb
myTotal = 0; // hdb - count of relevant trades
total=OrdersTotal();
for(cnt=0;cnt<total;cnt++)
{
OrderSelect(cnt, SELECT_BY_POS, MODE_TRADES);
if ( (OrderSymbol()==Symbol()) && (OrderMagicNumber()==MagicNumber) ) // hdb - only symbol and magic
{
KeepStopLoss=OrderStopLoss();
AveragePrice=AveragePrice+OrderOpenPrice();
myTotal = myTotal +1; // hdb - count of relevant trades
myOrderType = OrderType(); // hdb - keep order type
}
}
AveragePrice=AveragePrice/MathMax(myTotal,1); // hdb myTotal
KeepAverage=AveragePrice;
Direction =0;
if(myOrderType==OP_BUY)
{ Direction=1; } //long
else
{ if (myOrderType==OP_SELL) Direction=2; }//short
}
if(KeepStopLoss!=0)
{
spread=MathAbs(KeepAverage-KeepStopLoss)/2;
dummy=(Bid+Ask)/2;
if (KeepStopLoss<(dummy+spread) && KeepStopLoss>(dummy-spread))
{
// a stoploss was hit
if(Direction==1) Direction=11;// no more longs
if(Direction==2) Direction=22;// no more shorts
}
KeepStopLoss=0;
}
}
}
//----------------------- TO DO LIST
// 1st days profit target is the 30 pip line *not* 30 pips below average as usually. -----> Day()
// Trailing stop -> trailing or S/R or pivot target
// Realistic stop loss
// Avoid overly big positions
// EUR/USD 30 pips / use same value as CurrentPipStep
// GBP/CHF 50 pips / use same value as CurrentPipStep
// USD/CAD 35 pips / use same value as CurrentPipStep
//----------------------- OBSERVATIONS
// GBPUSD not suited for this system due to not reversing exhaustions. Maybe use other types of MA
// EURGBP often sharp reversals-> good for trailing stops?
// EURJPY deep pockets needed.
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